By Bonaventure Phillips Melah and Joseph Pius Akpan

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, assumed office on May 29, 2023 and in the last two years, his administration has implemented policies and programs aimed at addressing Nigeria’s economic challenges and improving governance.

Below is a list of some of the key policies of the administration aimed at repositioning the nation’s economy towards prosperity of the people.

1. Fuel Subsidy Removal

2. Exchange Rate Unification

3. Growth in Foreign Reserves

4. Boost in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

5. Port Harcourt Refinery Rehabilitation

6. Removal of Import Duties on Food Items

7. Faster Passport Issuance

8. Student Loan Scheme Implementation

9. Inclusive Cabinet and G20 Membership

10. Strengthened Energy Sector Reforms

11. Infrastructure Development Progress

12. Growth in Non-Oil Revenue

13. Improved Security Measures

14. Agriculture and Food Security

15. Enhanced Passport Services and Diaspora Engagement

16. Affordable Housing Projects

17. A Vision for a Transformed Nigeria

Growing the economy, expanding investment inflows via reforms

For many years, Nigeria’s economy, has been in the doldrums, stuck in an oil-dependent rut and plagued by banditry. The economy was to say the least, run by a political elite bent on self-enrichment. But the tide is changing for good, courtesy of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms.

This is coming halfway through the first presidential term of Tinubu, who completed two years in office last month- June. Many experts are in agreement that Nigeria’s economy, though not yet out of the woods, is in better shape than at any time in the past decade. That may come as a surprise or even sound like a sick joke to millions of Nigerians who are suffering the worst cost of living crisis in a generation. The cynicism harbored in some quarters notwithstanding, the Federal Government has been able to stabilise the economy and laid the groundwork for a broader recovery.

The World Bank, this year, expects growth of 3.7 percent, in what would be Nigeria’s best performance since 2014, save for a post-Covid rebound. Despite this, most Nigerians would not feel the positive impact yet, although it is a decent performance when oil prices are weak. This is happening because Tinubu’s government is tackling the debilitating structural distortions in the economy, despite concerns that it is often implemented in haphazard fashion.

On the first day in office, President Tinubu removed a ruinously expensive fuel subsidy. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has stopped printing money to pay for government profligacy; restored monetary policy orthodoxy after a shambolic era in which only cronies with access to cheap dollars benefited. The naira has stabilized after a dangerous overshoot, with the gap between the official and black-market rate shrinking almost to nothing. To that effect, investors no longer live in constant fear of devaluation and can readily access dollars.

Crude oil production has recovered from a nadir of 1million barrels a day to nearly 1.5 million in May. Oil theft has been reduced and local companies are squeezing more out of marginal fields.

The reforms, implemented by the CBN have continued to enhance Nigeria’s position as an attractive investment destination. Already, the economy attracted higher foreign portfolio investment inflows totaled $3.48 billion in six months of reforms, compared with $756.1 million in pre-reforms era. This trend reflects growing investor confidence in the CBN’s ability to manage the financial system and economy, and constitute a positive signal for global investors.

For the CBN, there has never been a better time to prioritize price and exchange rate stability, catalyze sustainable economic growth, and protect the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians through reforms than now. Its policies, including the exchange rate unification, have led to significant foreign capital inflows to the economy while reducing its intervention in the forex market.

The floatation of the naira and the clearing of over $7 billion FX backlog improved the country’s outlook with foreign investors as well as multilateral organizations, like the World Bank describing it as bold intervention to improve the economy’s sustainability in the long run.

Before Tinubu stepped in, Nigeria was also grappling with a fiscal crisis, marked by unsustainable deficit financing through the Central Bank’s Ways and Means advances, which had reached an unprecedented N22.7 trillion by 2023—equivalent to almost 11 per cent of the GDP. In addition, quasi-fiscal interventions by the CBN, totaling over N10 trillion, undermined market confidence and weakened the effectiveness of its policy tools.

Against these odds, the new CBN, under the headship of Mr. Olayemi Michael Cardoso, has brought new hopes in the management of the financial system and economy. The current macroeconomic stabilization efforts support Nigeria’s ability to attract foreign investors to its markets.

For instance, at the end of 2024, Nigeria leveraged its improved economic fundamentals to re-enter the Eurobond market, seeking to address its fiscal deficit. The move marked the country’s return to the international debt market in November after a two-year absence. In a dual-tranche Eurobond issuance, investor demand surged, with subscriptions exceeding $9 billion. Despite the strong interest, the government chose to raise $2.2 billion. The issuance included $700 million in 6.5-year bonds set to mature in 2031, carrying a 9.625% coupon rate, and $1.5 billion in 10-year bonds with a coupon rate of 10.375%. The high-interest rate environment also attracted higher foreign portfolio investment inflows, which totaled $3.48 billion in the first half of 2024 compared to $756.1 million during the same period in 2023. This trend reflects growing investor confidence in the country’s ability to manage its external debt burden, a positive signal for Nigeria’s Eurobonds.

Economy gets positive Fitch Ratings

The Fitch Ratings last year revised upward Nigeria’s long-term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (FCY-IDR) outlook to “Positive” from “Stable” previously. It also affirmed IDR at “B-“. Fitch Ratings hinged the upward outlook review on ongoing fiscal and monetary policy reforms, notably, the reduction in fuel subsidy burden, the scale back on deficit financing through Ways & Means, the reduction in official vs parallel market FX rate distortion, forex backlog clearance, as well as the notable improvement in crude oil output in first quarter.

Winning the war against exchange rate gaps, FX speculations

The government, through the CBN has activated market-driven pricing for the naira, significantly enhancing transparency and restoring investor confidence. With disciplined reforms and policy clarity, the naira has stabilized at a more sustainable level against the U.S. dollar. The once-wide gap between the official and parallel market rates has all but disappeared, a first in Nigeria’s recent history, and speculative arbitrage has all but vanished. The battle to close the gap between the official market rates and parallel market rates has been raging for decades, with little results to show for it. That was until the CBN -led forex reforms kicked in, and close the huge gaps between both markets.

Naira shows resilience despite headwinds

Head, Investment Research at Commercio Partners, Ifeanyi Ubah, said the naira has experienced a turbulent journey in 2025. After beginning the year on a strong note, it has since come under significant pressure, depreciating from N1,475/$ at the end of January to N1,598/$ as of May 19.

“While the decline is notable, especially over such a short span, a broader comparison with 2024 paints a more tempered picture, the naira has shown relative resilience in the face of global headwinds and domestic pressures,” he said. He explained that part of the recent strain on the naira has stemmed from sustained local demand for foreign exchange, which continues to outpace supply. However, this is only one side of the story.

According to him, more substantial pressure has come from abroad, as foreign investors have pulled back from Nigerian markets, mirroring a wider trend among emerging economies. “A global risk-off sentiment, spurred by rising geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and ongoing tariff disputes, has triggered a flight to safety. As investors rush to safer assets, particularly in developed markets, many riskier currencies, including the naira, have borne the brunt of capital flight,” he said.

Ubah explained that despite certain headwinds, there is a silver lining for the naira, adding that the CBN’s foreign exchange reforms are clearly yielding results. “One of the most notable successes has been the reduction in exchange rate volatility. Although the naira has depreciated, it has done so in a more orderly and predictable manner. The gap between the official and parallel market rates remains narrow, a significant departure from the sharp discrepancies seen in previous years. Daily fluctuations in the exchange rate have also moderated significantly when compared to 2024, signaling growing market confidence and increased transparency in FX operations,” he said.

He said that this improved stability is not just a statistical detail, it matters deeply to investors. “Exchange rate volatility is a major risk consideration for foreign investors looking to enter any emerging market. As Nigeria continues to rein in this volatility, it enhances its attractiveness as a destination for foreign capital. Should these reforms persist and deepen, they may lay the groundwork for a more sustainable and investment-friendly FX environment, potentially setting the stage for renewed inflows and a more stable naira in the long run,” he said.

He highlighted that after a challenging start to the year Nigeria’s external reserve position has begun to show signs of recovery—an encouraging development that reflects not only changing market dynamics but also the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) strategic efforts to restore confidence in the economy. “While early 2025 saw some drawdown in the reserves due to heightened demand for foreign exchange—driven by debt servicing obligations, import-related FX needs, and direct CBN interventions—the tide began to turn from late April. As of May 16, Nigeria’s external reserve stood at approximately $38.9 billion, a level the CBN notes is sufficient to cover 7.6 months of imports for goods and services,” Ubah stated.

Tackling impact of oil price decline

The Federal Government, in the past two years, has recorded some modest gains in the oil sector, a major foreign exchange (FX) earner for the nation, although the non-oil segment of the economy is equally generating FX, after the introduction of various reforms.

This achievement is being threatened by recent developments in the international oil market. The decline in oil prices due to OPEC+ many Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreeing to boost production by nearly one million barrels per day (1mbp/d) across April, May and June will have adverse impact on FX inflows to Nigeria.

However, the threat appears to be contained by continuous efforts by the CBN to establish strong measures to attract more dollars into the economy to reduce impact of crude oil prices drop on FX liquidity and overall economy.

In recent months, global oil prices have continued to decline, currently trading slightly above $60 per barrel. For an oil dependent economy like Nigeria, the ongoing decline in crude oil prices is never cheering news. Crude oil prices react to many variables, including supply and demand prospects and the perceived risk of market disruptions. Economic growth can drive up the demand for crude oil, while slowdowns tend to lower demand and prices.

The current decline in oil prices reflects a complex interplay of supply-side decisions, demand-side concerns, and strategic maneuvers by key players like Saudi Arabia. With the pessimistic projection of The Wall Street Journal that Brent could end 2025 below $50 per barrel; Nigerian policymakers have their work cut out for them. At $50 per barrel and a production level of 1.5 million barrel per day (mbpd), Nigeria’s oil revenue will be 10 percent below its fiscal breakeven point. The fiscal deficit could rise to six to seven percent of Gross Domestic Product, with a knock-on effect on inflation.

These supply hikes come amid global economic challenges including a tariff war initiated by the US. Middle Eastern benchmarks have been pressured by the rising supplies, with the average cash Dubai premium to swaps at $1.21/bbl as of 27 May, a $0.45 decrease from April’s average. Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, bases its crude prices on customer recommendations and the past month’s oil value changes, considering yields and product prices.

However, Cardoso has through foresight, activated countermeasures that will ensure that the impact of the oil-crisis does not hurt the domestic economy. The apex bank is taking measures to improve Nigeria’s export potential, promoting backward integration principles to reduce import of items that can be produced locally and simplifying dollar remittances to domestic economy for Nigerians in diaspora.

Drawing from China’s economic strategy, the apex bank said Nigeria’s competitive exchange rate can drive export-led growth. To harness this potential, businesses are expected to adopt export-oriented strategies by targeting sectors with strong export potential such as agriculture, manufacturing and creative industries; implement import-substitution models by strengthening domestic production capabilities and reducing reliance on costly imports; and focus on value addition by shifting from exporting raw materials to processed goods, thereby boosting foreign exchange earnings.

Nigeria’s creative sector has the potential to attract $25 billion annually to the economy, highlighting the untapped opportunities in nation’s expanding creative sector, including music, film, crafts, and digital exports. Businesses should explore international markets, digital platforms, and global tours to increase dollar revenue inflows. Also telecom companies should reduce their dependence on foreign imports by producing key components of their inputs locally. The backward integration proposal for the telecom industry comes at a time the real sector is in dire need of sustainable growth.

FG’s Series VII Sukuk offer surpasses projection by 735%, attracts ₦2.205trn subscription

The Series VII Sovereign Sukuk through which the Debt Management Office (DMO) offered N300 billion, on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), recorded an unprecedented subscription level of over N2.205 trillion, representing an excess of 735 percent subscription. This is a clear evidence of the huge investor-appetite for the ethical instrument introduced by the DMO in 2017 as an innovative strategy to expand the nation’s investor-base and provide opportunities for all Nigerians to participate in the activities of the capital market.

An analysis of the subscriptions showed that the subscribers cut across various segments of the public: retail, non-interest banks and financial institutions, banks, pension fund administrators, asset/fund managers and others. Like the previous series, funds realized from the Issuance will be used by the FGN to construct new roads and rehabilitate existing ones, as well as build bridges in the six geo-political zones of the country and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The raising of funds through Sukuk to finance infrastructure projects aligns with Mr. President’s Renewed Hope Agenda of which infrastructure development is a key pillar. This will assist to providing safe and liquid investment products to the public, and supporting the FGN’s development plans.

Listed companies declared N1.1trn dividends

Improved confidence in Nigeria’s capital market has continued to surge, manifesting in huge investor returns with listed companies declaring dividends totaling ₦1.1trillion to shareholders in 2024. Corroborating the sterling performance of the Nigerian capital market, which reflects its health status, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Director-General Dr Emomotimi Agama, said out of the amount, listed companies had already paid out ₦1.0 trillion to shareholders. Dr. Agama disclosed that the Commission, between January and December 2024, had approved a total of ₦3.68 trillion in new issues, further reaffirming the renewed interest in the Nigerian capital market. He explained: “This comprised ₦59.82 billion in fixed income issuances and ₦3.62 trillion in equities, reflecting strong investor appetite and issuer confidence in the equity segment of our market. For the period spanning January to April 2025, we have so far approved new issues valued at approximately ₦446.38 billion. Of this amount, ₦265.90 billion was raised through fixed income instruments, while ₦180.48 billion was mobilised via equities”.

On mergers and acquisitions, Agama said the Commission in 2024 approved 11 transactions with an aggregate value of ₦320.36 billion. “Most notable of these was the acquisition of a 58.02 percent equity stake in Guinness Nigeria Plc by N Seven Nigeria Ltd., valued at over ₦103.7 billion. There were also three corporate restructuring transactions, two share capital reconstructions, one takeover, and four registrations of securities. Among the notable corporate restructuring transactions was the scheme of arrangement involving Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc, valued at over ₦105 billion, and the share capital reconstruction by Transnational Corporation Plc, which saw a one-for-four share consolidation amounting to ₦5.08 billion,” he said.

Furthermore, the Commission had approved three major transactions year-to-date worth ₦38.53 billion. “This includes two takeovers and one corporate restructuring. While no mergers have been recorded within the review period, the pace of market activity remains steady, with continued interest in strategic consolidation and reorganisation across key sectors. These activities reflect continued strategic realignments within the market,” Agama said.

The collective investment schemes recorded robust expansion with a combined net asset value of ₦3.84 trillion as of fourth quarter of 2024. “Registered mutual funds reached 184 in number, with a combined net asset value of ₦3.84 trillion and over 800,000 unit holders. “Privately managed portfolios and products grew to 444 vehicles with assets under management totaling ₦4.69 trillion. In aggregate, 82 active asset management firms oversee ₦8.53 trillion in investments. These figures reflect a maturing market where professional fund management is increasingly recognised as a critical driver of capital formation and wealth creation. The figures are indicative of sustained activity in the market, particularly as issuers continue to leverage both the debt and equity segments to finance growth and investment,” Agama added.

Nigeria’s headline inflation eases to 23.71%

To Inflation in Nigeria has continued to moderate, with headline inflation rate dropping to 23.71 percent in April 2025, relative to 24.23 percent recorded in March 2025, representing a decrease of 0.52 percent from March 2025 figure, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The report is based on a new consumer price index (CPI) base year of 2024, with 2023 as the reference period for expenditure weights.

The NBS said the three major contributors to the headline inflation were Food and non-alcoholic Beverages: 9.49 percent, Restaurants & Accommodation Services: 3.06 percent, and Transport: 2.53 percent; while the least contributors were Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics: 0.09 percent, Recreation, Sport, and Culture: 0.07 percent.

The NBS reported that on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in April 2025 was 1.86 percent, which was 2.04 percent lower than the 3.90 percent recorded in March 2025. Food inflation rate in April 2025 was 21.26 percent on a year-on-year basis, while on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in April 2025 was 2.06 percent, a decline of 0.12 percent compared to 2.18 percent recorded in March 2025. The decrease can be attributed to the reduction in average prices of items such as Maize (Corn) Flour, Wheat Grain, Okro Dried, Yam Flour, Soya Beans, Rice, Bambara beans, Brown Beans etc.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 23.39 percent in April 2025 on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.34 percent in April 2025, down by 2.39 percent compared to 3.73 percent in March 2025. “The inflation rate of the newly introduced sub-index is: Farm Produce: 2.64%, Energy: 9.21%, Services: 3.44%, and Goods: 3.89%,” the NBS stated.

On a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate in April 2025 was 24.29 percent, while on a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 1.18 percent in April 2025, reflecting a decrease of 2.78 percent compared to 3.96 percent in March 2025. The rural inflation rate in April 2025 was 22.83 percent on a year-on-year basis, while on a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in April 2025 was 3.56 percent, showing a fall of 0.17 percent compared to 3.73 percent in March 2025.

State-level analyses show that the all-item index for April 2025, on a year-on-year basis, was highest in Enugu (35.98%), Kebbi (35.13%), and Niger (34.85%). Ondo (13.43%), Cross River (17.11%), Kwara (17.28%) recorded the lowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis.

On a month-on-month basis, April 2025 recorded the highest increases in Sokoto (16.26%), Nasarawa (16.02%), and Niger (14.74%). Oyo (-6.45%), Osun (-4.54%) and Ondo (-3.44%) recorded declines in month-on-month inflation.

State-level analyses of the food index in April 2025 show that food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Benue (51.76%), Ekiti (34.05%), and Kebbi (33.82%). The slowest rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was recorded in Ebonyi (7.19%), Adamawa (9.52%), and Ogun (9.91%).

However, on a month-on-month basis, April 2025 food inflation was highest in Benue (25.59%), Ekiti (16.73%), and Yobe (13.92%). Ebonyi (-14.43%), Kano (-11.37%) and Ogun (-7.06%) recorded declines in food inflation on a month-on-month basis.

Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory has been encouraging, surpassing projections in most cases. The macroeconomic fundamentals are looking up and impressive, pointing to a steady growth if the momentum is maintained. This has been recognized by multilateral and bilateral agencies, including other development partners.

In this regard, the World Bank commended the performance of Nigeria’s economy, noting that the macroeconomic situation is improving as a result of sustained reforms. This is contained in the latest edition of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report released in Abuja.

The report, titled “Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth,” states that economic growth in the last quarter of 2024 increased to 4.6 percent (year-on-year), pushing growth for the full year 2024 to 3.4 percent, the highest since 2014 (excluding the 2021-2022 COVID-19 rebound). According to NDU Report, “Recent reforms have also helped to strengthen the foreign exchange (FX) market and Nigeria’s external position. The consolidated fiscal position improved in 2024, driven by surging revenues. The fiscal deficit shrank from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% of GDP in 2024, a major improvement which was driven by a sharp increase in revenues of the entire Federation, which rose from N16.8 trillion in 2023 (7.2% of GDP) to an estimated N31.9 trillion in 2024 (11.5% of GDP).”

The report further adds that Inflation has remained high and sticky but is expected to fall to an annual average of 22.1 percent in 2025, as a sustained tight stance firmly establishes monetary policy credibility and dampens inflationary expectations.

However, it highlighted that the challenge is to consolidate macroeconomic stability and ignite inclusive growth through deeper, wider structural reforms, and stressed, “There is a need for the economy to generate more and better jobs at scale and reduce poverty”.

Taimur Samad, Acting World Bank Country Director for Nigeria said, “Nigeria has made impressive strides to restore macroeconomic stability. With the improvement in the fiscal situation, Nigeria now has a historic opportunity to improve the quantity and quality of development spending; investing more in human capital, social protection, and infrastructure. The allocation of public resources can begin to shift away from the past unsustainable pattern, and rather towards meeting Nigeria’s large development needs, including the government playing its essential role of providing basic public services and serving as an enabler of private sector–led growth.”

The NDU further highlights that in order for the economy to meet the government’s aspiration of achieving a US$1 trillion economy by 2030 and deliver poverty reduction and shared prosperity, the pace of growth needs to accelerate further and its composition rebalanced towards those economic sectors and firms that are most productive, generate positive spillovers, and create jobs and opportunities at scale, especially for the poor and economically insecure. It said at present, the best-performing sectors of the economy, like finance and ICT, are important drivers of growth but are not sources of mass employment as many Nigerians do not yet have the skills and opportunities to participate in them, stressing that a private sector-led, public sector-facilitated growth strategy can boost inclusive growth.

The Bank listed key elements of this strategy to include: addressing major infrastructure gaps, such as in electricity and transportation; Fostering healthy competition, market openness, and improving the business environment to spur business dynamism; Improving access to finance for new and existing firms to grow and improve productivity; Improving policies in key sectors to help unleash the potential of these sectors.

Alex Sienaert, World Bank Lead Economist for Nigeria said, “International experience suggests that the public sector cannot sustainably generate growth and jobs by itself. Nigeria is no exception, particularly since public resources remain constrained. A useful strategy is to position the public sector to play a dual role as a provider of essential public services, especially to build human capital and infrastructure, and as an enabler for the private sector to invest, innovate, and grow the economy.”